May 2008

“They have the greatest striker on the planet, Fernando Torres will probably finish top scorer – and Spain will lift the trophy” so says the favourite BBC pundit of euro2008statistics.com, Colin Murray.

You see, in a really nice touch – a whole host of BBC pundits have recorded mini videos of who they are going to throw their weight behind this summer. From a cursory glance, Italy and Spain seem to be amongst the favourites – although notable exceptions include sharp footballing mind Spoony who thinks Croatia could be real dark horses to lift the trophy, and controversial late-night host Richard Bacon who puts Greece forward as his team to watch. See them on YouTube here.

They’re all wrong mind you – as myself and Tom are pretty sure we’ve spotted the winners ourselves. For me, despite the infighting and often calamitous way these boys shoot themselves in the foot during big tournaments – I can’t see past the pace and flair of The Netherlands. Tom fancies the self-assured Italians to add the European Cup to their currently glittering trophy cabinet. The fact that the average age of the squad is over 28, and a number of players are clearly past their peak does not deter his clearly age-addled mind.

Either way, here’s the delightful Colin Murray with his hot tip….

9 days… That’s it! Just over a week until the showcase for international European football kicks off, and there’s clearly no better way to prepare yourself than with a free, downloadable wall chart that can be printed off, slapped on the wall – and diligently filled in until the final on the 29^th.

Who will win? Well my cheeky prediction is for a Netherlands vs. Germany final, with The Oranje coming out surprising winners – but to make up your own mind using the stats, check out castrolindex.com.

Meanwhile, come get your fill – you’re more than welcome to download our free Euro 2008 wallchart here, or by clicking on the picture below. Easily printable on A4 paper (so you can run off a load at work and no one will notice), it is complete with all the info you’ll need (date, times, venues etc) – as well as statistically the very best XI in qualifying.

Download it here… (or right click on the picture and select ’save link as’)

euro2008wallchart_uk.pdf

So Euro 2008 is just days away now (it really is!), and with everyone looking to get their pre-tournament favourites decided so they can support a winning team for once, bash the bookies and enjoy what promises to be a feast of football – those boffins at Castrol have come up with some rather interesting statistics showing the percentage likelihood of each national team, progressing to the quarter finals, semi finals, finals – and eventual winners of course!

Now we’re all pretty sure that Germany are the favourites for the tournament – after all, the punters got thoroughly behind their formidable squad (as low as 3/1 with some bookmakers), but some of Castrol’s other insights may surprise you. Blinded no doubt by Cristiano Ronaldo’s spectacular double winning season for Manchester United – Portugal are widely touted as 3^rd favourites – a confidence not backed up by the statistics, which see misfiring Portugal (who, let’s remember, finished behind Poland in their qualifying group) are given just 5% chance of snatching the tournament (the same percentage as Croatia and widely unfancied Switzerland).

Meanwhile, Romania their (quite frankly incredible) opening odds of 50/1 with some bookies, with statistics suggesting that they have more chance of tasting world-stage glory for the first time than world-champions Italy! No doubt scared off by their devastatingly tough group, The Tricolorii faithful should take solace in these statistics.

And whether or not you agree, there’s no doubt that time after time, the statistics have offered a look behind the misconceptions and vitriol of those who believe they know everything about football.

UEFA EURO 2008

Team - Progress to Quarter Final - Progress to Semi Final - Progress to Final - Win

Germany - 83% - 51% - 32% - 17%
Spain - 79% - 42% - 24% - 14%
Netherlands - 55% - 33% - 18% - 10%
Czech Republic - 63% - 36% - 20% - 10%
France - 54% - 32% - 17% - 10%
Romania - 49% - 27% - 14% - 7%
Italy - 42% - 23% - 12% - 6%
Switzerland - 51% - 25% - 12% - 5%
Portugal - 51% - 25% - 11% - 5%
Croatia - 55% - 26% - 11% - 5%
Sweden - 45% - 17% - 7% - 3%
Greece - 43% - 15% - 6% - 2%
Turkey - 34% - 14% - 6% - 2%
Poland - 37% - 14% - 5% - 2%
Russia - 33% - 10% - 3% - 1%
Austria - 26% - 9% - 3% - 1%

Of course, the biggest surprise of this table is that Austria have a 1% chance of lifting the trophy – I’d happily stake my kidneys against that eventuality – but this could make for some interesting food for thought, and we’ll see how well the percentages stack up in a little under two months time.

I am a massive football fan who takes interest in everything from non-league football, right through to massive world-stage tournaments (still a bit bored of the Scottish league mind only a joke sorry - sorry) and have been known, on the odd occasion, to indulge in the odd bit of gambling. Therefore, I couldn’t help but note that one of the latest developments on the Castrol Index site is rather interesting.

For under the ‘The Standings’ tab, those statistical boffins have graphically set up each fixture in the group stage – allowing you to access *deep breath* world ranking and the qualifying game stats for matches played, goals, shots on and off target, corners, offside, fouls, yellow cards, red cards and possession.

And all that information should come in rather handy when looking in depth at the game in advance of that shrill opening whistle. After all, it won’t need me to tell you that one can tell a lot about a team from their goalscoring exploits, openness of their play et al.

Oh – and if Spain end up playing Portugal during the tournament, you may well be advised to get a few quid on an awful lot of corners being conceded – just take a look at the ‘corners tab’ on the qualifying stats screen on the CPI and you’ll see what I mean. NB - The image is rather small, but should give you some impression of what is on offer.

So, last night has left me with a bitter taste in my mouth, realising as I did – that despite the gravitas of the European Cup final, this is the last of English football we’ll see in Europe until English mid-table cloggers take to the mire of the InterToto cup and grimly slog their way through a summer of turgid games against the likes of Kazakhstani legends Tobol.

However – the show must go on, and now fair English fans it’s time to pick our teams for Euro 2008 and get all excited – for out of last night’s hangovers and shout-scarred throats comes ‘Random round up Thursday’ – we need a theme tune!

Firstly – it’s over to our good pals at World Cup Blog to bring you news that may well have slipped under the radar - that 35 year old Jan Koller is retiring after the tournament finishes, whether he leads his country to glorious victory or slips away in ignominious defeat. In 83 games he has scored 52 times, a record for both the Czech Republic and ‘The Artist Formerly Known as Czechoslovakia’. Farewell giant Jan – the world stage will miss you!

Oh and don’t expect to see too many bookings for German defenders this year (except for handball perhaps), as it seems that coach Jogi Löw has invited Denis Wucherer, who played for Germany’s basketball national team, to teach the players a bit about how you defend in basketball. Hoping that shooting the hoops against them will help Philipp Lahm and co learn how to block the ball with the body and fairly winning one-on-one situations, we’ll soon see if it has had any effect.

Next, it’s over to Holland and the irrepressible Dirk Kuyt who, despite having an inconsistent season at Liverpool (what with occasional loss of form and Rafa’s rotating ridiculousness) is confident he will make coach Marco van Basten’s definitive squad. Reports in Holland have suggested the Anfield-based striker could miss out on final selection, but Kuyt believes he has the necessary qualities to make it into van Basten’s definitive squad, despite only scoring 11 in 48.

“If I show the same here as I did in the recent months at Liverpool, I don’t have to worry,” he told the club’s official website. “I think I will be a part of the squad.”

And what better way to finish than by jetting off to France and revealing the best X1… No, not the starting line-up but some rather attractive French models showing their er… ‘big-hearted’ support for the lads! Don’t watch if partial nudity offends.

As excitement about squad selection ratchets up a notch to absolute boiling point, it’s time to bring a little more news your way on those players who will be packing their bags and heading to the biggest Swiss/Austrian tournament since the famous regional cuckoo-clock off in 1879, and who will be sitting at home with Raul and Trezeguet, presumably weeping throughout the whole month of June.

First, and perhaps most shocking is that Sweden’s 36 year old target-man Henrik Larsson will be challenging Johan Elmander (1,657 CPI points in qualifying from 17 shots on goal) for a starting berth after being picked for Euro 2008, two years after retiring from the international scene(!) What’s for sure, is that come next month, they will both be vying for position alongside “possibly the most over-rated player in the world” (according to Martin O’ Neil) Zlatan Ibrahimovic, whose league-winning brace for Internazionale against Parma suggests that he’s in fine form.

And it’s strike one for form over at the Azzurri team camp too, as Italian coach Roberto Donadoni has included 33-year-old Alessandro del Piero, after presumably reading euro2008statistics blog avidly over the last few weeks. Felipe Inzaghi doesn’t make it though, as tempestuous Real Madrid striker Antonio Cassano travels instead – expect him to be sent off at least once.

Here’s an example from World Cup Blog to show exactly what the petulant red-blooded Italian has been known to get up to in the past.

Donadoni says “It’s not us that have to make the change - he has to do something about it. Antonio is a person that I like a lot and he knows that. He is one of those people that you are unable to dislike. But he is no longer a youngster and he must understand that there are certain things you cannot do. He says that once in a while he loses it but he needs to try to control himself.” How right he is!

You know that your dreams of playing international football are pretty much over when players you remember electrifying the world stage in their late teens, have traipsed lazily to the end of their international careers – and have fallen out of favour in the biggest tournaments. And so, it is with some regret I have to tell you that Raul and David Trezeguet have been kicked out of their respective international squads.

And whether you mourn the passing of once great international heroes into folklore (and lets be fair, they’re bound to still be lighting up the European league scene for some time to come), or celebrate the emergence of exciting new talent. OK, so there is admittedly an embarrassment of riches leading the line for the French, with Franck Ribéry, Florent Malouda, Hatem Ben Arfa, Nicolas Anelka and Thierry Henry all vying to pop the ball home – perhaps there’s no place for Thierry’s bezzie chum.

In the case of the Spaniard though, it seems a slightly odd choice to us, considering the statistics. OK, so Raúl has long been criticised as part of that Spanish squad who ever failed to deliver, but has nonetheless scored 18 goals in Real Madrid CF’s title-winning campaign, while his Zaragoza-based replacement Sergio García has scored but 4 goals in 37 games.

As to whether it was an intelligent decision, all will be revealed come June – but until then, I personally think that Aragones is going to be sweating on his controversial exclusion until his ‘Red Fury’ are safely lifting the trophy…