In response to Alexander from Clubfans.de, who argued very strongly - and with good support from the Castrol Index – that Germany will prevail against Turkey tonight, we give you our defence of the Turks.

Alexander stated that Germany have beaten Turkey 11 times out of 17, but in the last 3 games Turkey have won 2 and drawn one. Germany haven’t won against the Turks since May 1992 – over 16 years ago (!) – and that was in a friendly. The Turkish side certainly have the bragging rights here, and the fact that none of the German regime who were involved in the last victory have anything to do with the current team means that there will be an increased confidence and swagger in the Turkish team as they line up tonight.

Admittedly, Turkey have lost their first choice ‘keeper following Demirel’s ‘rush of blood’, but let’s just take a moment to consider the positions of the starting stoppers tonight in the CPI. Rustu Recber is sitting comfortably at number 8, and where is Herr Lehmann? Oh yes, I see. Down there at number 10. Despite playing 3 more games than Rustu, he still hasn’t been good enough to amass the mighty 1366 CPI points that the Turkish number 2 has gained.

And if there is one place superiority is important, no doubt it’s between the sticks. Let’s face it, Jens Lehmann doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, especially when you look at one or two of his gaffes that he has committed in the last few years. So that’s Turkey with recent history and a better keeper.

Then there is the Turkish style of play to consider. We at Euro2008statistics.com reckon that Turkey will prove difficult to break down, frustrating the Germans. They may well play 10 men behind the ball, and hope to catch them on the break as they throw more and more players at the unbreakable wall of red. Consider that Turkey have only ever scored once in the first half at the Euros, and have scored 6 of their 9 total championship goals at this tournament. That guarantees Germany are in for a tough second half, and if they haven’t got it sewn up by then are likely to face an onslaught for the last period of the match. So that’s recent history, a better keeper and a second half to blow Germany away.

What we will agree with Alexander on is that this match should bring together two nations in a friendly festival of football (the Turkish ex-pat community in Germany is huge). We also concur that whoever loses should do so gracefully and thus maintain the harmonious solidarity that has so far blessed the Euros.

That said, there’s a fair chance Turkey could cause an upset and the Germans may well start whingeing about dirty play and so forth…..let’s see how the game pans out.