It’s the big one alright, the one we’ve all been waiting for, the one that the previous 30 games have all been about. It’s the game when the great and the good of World football and politics (well, Platini and Angela Merkel anyway) are bound to be in the stands. Predicted by Castrol way back in May, the Spain/Germany final is the match that most neutrals would have thought would be the ultimate game. Unless they were Italian. Or French. Or Dutch.

According to the Edmonton Sun, though, Germany’s talismanic captain and most hard-working player throughout the whole tournament might not be available due to a mystery calf injury. They quote coach Joachim Loew as saying ‘We don’t know how he got injured’, but here at Euro2008statistics, we’d say it has something to do with the massive distances he has been covering every game.

The Castrol Index boys have pulled out some fascinating stats in the lead up to this clash, including the fact that Schweinsteiger’s two goals since coming back from his suspension have both been from Podolski crosses played from virtually the exact same blade of grass.

They also highlight the fact that the finalists didn’t get there by fluke, scoring 11 (Spain) and 10 (Germany) goals. There is a difference in how they got them, though, with Spain taking 83 shots on goal (at a conversion rate of 13.25%) and the German side netting theirs from 53 shots – at a higher rate of success (18.52%). So while Spain go for a shoot on sight approach, the Germans seem more clinical as to when they choose to pull the trigger.

So let’s see what tonight brings. Hopefully it won’t be a cagey 0-0 and Spain’s more balls-out attacking approach will force the Germans to play a more open game. What price penalties, then?