Croatia

And a wonderful victory for the euro2008statistics.com favourite - Slaven Bilic…

If only we could see a heat-map of this animated performance - but alas not, and therefore we will leave you with a picture of the overall stats logged by the CPI during this famous victory. Yes it was tight, yes it was a close game - but the Croatians just nicked it on heart and passion!

And with that spanner thrown into the works in group B, what price a Germany vs Portugal quarter final clash…. Ooh!

So the pundits have just been assessing the German weaknesses, and unsurprisingly it is the left side that has received the majority of the criticism. Firstly, the so-often out of position Marcell Jansen (caught ball watching for the Croatian strike), and secondly – it’s yesterday’s hero Lukas Podolski. 

Focussing on the latter of these sluggish individuals, it’s Podolski whose heat map (powered by the CPI) speaks volumes. Comparing him to the (yet again) industrious Michael Ballack, it is clear to see that German’s left winger is leaving young Marcell hopelessly exposed -with very little support. 

Content to spend the majority of the game hanging around in left midfield, we suggest that the German management fires a proverbial rocket up the behinds of several of their tournament favourites. Can they dredge 3 points out of this one – we have no doubt that they can, especially as Croatian fitness has been an issue.

They will certainly have to pick this up though!

The Croatian flair was missing in the first game against the co-hosts Austria, and the team that are perennially taken to the hearts of many folk now face the mighty efficiency of the German side, who have cold hearts and no sentimentality when it comes to finishing off their opponents. Just ask Lukas Podolski, who having virtually secured the win with his first goal against Poland (when did Germany ever lose a 1-0 lead?) twisted the knife further in the hearts of his forefathers by bagging himself a second. ‘Feel the cold steel, Poland,’ you could almost see him think.

The stats show that Podolski was as clinical and clean as he was hard-working. The heat map below shows him hugging the left wing, making occasional forays into the middle of the park only when it was deemed necessary. He touched the ball just 5 times when inside the Poles’ penalty area – and came up with two goals – now there’s a model of efficiency if ever there was one.

The possible flaw in the German efficiency is highlighted in their pass accuracy rate. With the ball reaching its intended target 77.71% of the time, there may be a small light at the end of the tunnel for Croatia if they can ‘get amongst them’ and harry the opposition into making more mistakes. They’ll have to step up their own game however, as their own stat is a less than impressive 66.86% completion. One suspects the German team won’t be happy with 4^th place in this particular table.

Tom thinks this will be a clinical 3-0 to the Germans

Jack, on the other hand, thinks Croatia will see an unlikely Slaven Bilic-style victory 1-0

Stats, as ever, powered by http://www.castrolindex.com

Castrol Performance Index ambassador Arsene Wenger has been speaking about the tournament in general, and what the CPI can tell us about certain aspects of the games we have seen.

He reckons a big part of the reason that the games have been quite under par has been the psychological pressure that the players are under not to lose, leaving them a ‘little apprehensive’ about committing too much to the game or throwing their force forwards and conceding on the break. The ‘mental pressure’ of having ‘the weight of a country on their shoulders’ is obviously telling, but the Arsenal manager has had a look at the CPI stats, and has found some interesting points to show it isn’t all just in the mind.

He noticed that Croatia collectively covered 105km in their game with Austria, and commented that in the Champions League and Premier League he’d expect to see a figure around 115-125 km. He didn’t put the lack of work rate down to the players being tired after long domestic seasons though, more that they haven’t played for 3 or 4 weeks and ‘can’t sustain the pace of a top level game’. He expects distances and pace to improve as the tournament goes on.

As far as the France – Romania games goes, Wenger saw that the French were frustrated by the deep defending of their opponents, who didn’t ‘leave any space behind them’ for Les Bleus to attack. As the Romanian defence’s heat map below shows they certainly were packing the central area in and around the edge of the penalty area, which ultimately succeeded as a strategy and frustrated the French no end.

What Wenger has noticed is a change of tactics once a team goes ahead. ‘Holland scored first and Italy had to take more chances’, which resulted in them leaving themselves open at the back. He ended with a stark warning for any team that concedes in the tournament – ‘84% of the time [he’s talking in general], the team that scores first wins the big games’. Certainly true of the games so far in Euro 2008, so let’s see if this pattern continues through the tournament.

With a sterling attempt that no doubt won their footballing side a modicum of respect worldwide, Austria proved those 8,000 fans who signed a ‘take them out of Europe because they’ll be an embarrasment’ petition wrong – by running Croatia rather close in their first game in Euro 2008.

Indeed, it was only a cast-iron penalty from a clumsy Austrian challenge that led to Spurs’ new capture Luca Modric drilling home the resultant spot-kick with ease, that gave Slaven Bilic and his boys their expected 3 points – and eased the pressure on them in Group B.

Other than that though it was noticeable that Austria were working hard, and with the impressive Joachim Standfest covering more ground than any other player, and his fellow countryman Martin Stranzl hitting a top speed of 27.12kph – it was obvious that Austria were putting in the graft.. Indeed, as the BBC sports site said “An equaliser would not have flattered a plucky Austria side who had to dig deep to recover from a terrible opening spell.”

For a more comprehensive report, take a look over at 101 Great Goals, who had it spot on, saying “after the break Austria produced a stirring performance that was worthy of an equaliser. The hosts created a raft of chances, Ivanschitz and Harnik both shooting off target. The oldest player in the tournament, 38-years-old Ivica Vastic, had a sweet header saved by Pletikosa. Then in the final stages, Korkmaz had a curling shot well saved and Kienast headed narrowly wide as the hapless Austrians failed to find the crucial goal.”

And it was that lack of confidence that told – leaving Austria, for all their hard work, anchored at the bottom of group B… Will Poland be joining them in a few hours time? The totally unbiased side of me hopes ardently that they won’t! It’s time for an upset, and wouldn’t it be sweet if it was Germany? Ahem… By which of course I mean, may the best team win *mutters*. At least he’s happy tonight (see below).

OK – so I’ve been happy to dismiss the hosts as absolute also-rans throughout the entire build up to the tournament, the CPI rates them as a 1% chance to pick up the trophy – and as we speak they’re still 1 down to Croatia.

But by gum – with only around ten minutes to go those Austrains are putting up quite a fight. “Not quite the stroll in the park that some people expected it to be” say Old Mother Beeb – and noone can deny that! Despite the perfect start, Croatia are on the rack somewhat.

Over on the Castrol Performance Index, to which I am glued (with one eye on the telly of course) one can see that the Austrians have certainly been industrious, running 2km more than Croatia in total with heat maps showing Croatia on back foot.

Could be worth putting Austria down for a last minute equaliser here – have they got the confidence in front of goal though? Keep your eyes on the screen

Croatians ahead, but the Austrians are coming back at them. Possession for Croatia has fallen from 58% to 56%, and they have only had 7 shots despite this amount of ball control. The Austrians, meanwhile, have has 4 shots on goal, and the team heat maps actually show that the Austrians are pushing forward more than the Croatians.

And let’s not forget that the goal was a clumsy penalty.

The Croatian midfield has been the busiest, covering26848m to the Austrian 16502m, and the defence has had it relatively easy, only having to run a collective 13670m compared to the 24821m of the Austrians.

Martin Stranzl is the fastest man on the pitch at 27.12km/h, almost matching Ronaldo’s speed of last night, and the player who has covered the most distance is Srna with 5655m covered. Splitting the honours then as far as stats go, but who knows how this will finish?