Germany

It’s been 34 years since they last won anything of note, but tonight let the world sing Viva Espana! Because Spain are champions of Europe, and oh how they deserved it. Dominating this game like they have so many others during the tournament – what better way to celebrate Aragones’ 70th birthday than with such an assured performance. It’s testament to quality football winning out over a team who ust, quite frankly, were not good enough!

There aren’t any stats to really exemplify how much Spain dominated the previously un-dominat-able (it’s a word!) Germans. They didn’t run as far, they didn’t have more of the ball, they weren’t caught offside the most (a sure sign of an attacking team). And yet they triumphed quite beautifully. Pass and move. Score one and win. Game over. Now sit back and bask in the Iberian glory.

Let’s ignore for a minute Fernando Torres’ new Clark Kent hairstyle, and the fact that (as Mrs. Tom so helpfully pointed out ‘These two sides haven’t got those funny numbers on their backs’), Germany are being shown exactly how to play football in this Euro 2008 final. Pass and move, the quintessential tactic that defines the game is very much front and centre in Spain’s game, with the German defence struggling to cope with the diagonal play of the speedy Spanish.

The story of the half shows exactly 50:50 possession, but the telling stat is the shot tally. Spain have fired off 6 shots to Germany’s 2. TWO. In 45 minutes. As Ray Stubbs so eloquently put it just now on the BBC ‘Spain will reaaly kick themselves if they don’t win it from here.’

Stats from Castrolindex.com

It’s the big one alright, the one we’ve all been waiting for, the one that the previous 30 games have all been about. It’s the game when the great and the good of World football and politics (well, Platini and Angela Merkel anyway) are bound to be in the stands. Predicted by Castrol way back in May, the Spain/Germany final is the match that most neutrals would have thought would be the ultimate game. Unless they were Italian. Or French. Or Dutch.

According to the Edmonton Sun, though, Germany’s talismanic captain and most hard-working player throughout the whole tournament might not be available due to a mystery calf injury. They quote coach Joachim Loew as saying ‘We don’t know how he got injured’, but here at Euro2008statistics, we’d say it has something to do with the massive distances he has been covering every game.

The Castrol Index boys have pulled out some fascinating stats in the lead up to this clash, including the fact that Schweinsteiger’s two goals since coming back from his suspension have both been from Podolski crosses played from virtually the exact same blade of grass.

They also highlight the fact that the finalists didn’t get there by fluke, scoring 11 (Spain) and 10 (Germany) goals. There is a difference in how they got them, though, with Spain taking 83 shots on goal (at a conversion rate of 13.25%) and the German side netting theirs from 53 shots – at a higher rate of success (18.52%). So while Spain go for a shoot on sight approach, the Germans seem more clinical as to when they choose to pull the trigger.

So let’s see what tonight brings. Hopefully it won’t be a cagey 0-0 and Spain’s more balls-out attacking approach will force the Germans to play a more open game. What price penalties, then?

Well you can’t argue with 7 goals in 2 games, and once again the Spanish showed their class in clinically dispatching a side who knew their footballing beans… But were no match for Aragones and his lads, who may well go into Sunday’s finals as slight favourites against the Germans.

We shall see - but in the mean time, just take a look at the Castrol Index statistics from tonight, and make up your own mind who deserved to win.

Hands up who thought this would be a stroll in the forest for Germany… Come on, don’t lie - the poor injury-hit Turks laying down and taking a right old battering from their culturally efficient, no-nonsense neighbours. Big-game Ballack bound to pop up with several, and Germany to cruise easily into the final, dismissing the brave Turks with a sweep of their mighty hands. Well no… Because this half has been all about Turkey.

Capatalising on some mighty interesting goalkeeping from Jens Lehmann (for interesting, read bloody awful), Turkey took the lead in that storming first half, and down to some tenacious attacking flair from them, they’ve really got at the Germans. Could this be… Could this REALLY be another massive latter stages shock. I’m erring on the side of no, as I think the injury-hit Turkish side may have problems during the second half with stamina, and having no real options on the bench.

Take a look at this Semhi Senturk heat-map from the CPI for example, which goes someway to demonstrate the lads dominance upfront… We’re in for a big second half!

In response to Alexander from Clubfans.de, who argued very strongly - and with good support from the Castrol Index – that Germany will prevail against Turkey tonight, we give you our defence of the Turks.

Alexander stated that Germany have beaten Turkey 11 times out of 17, but in the last 3 games Turkey have won 2 and drawn one. Germany haven’t won against the Turks since May 1992 – over 16 years ago (!) – and that was in a friendly. The Turkish side certainly have the bragging rights here, and the fact that none of the German regime who were involved in the last victory have anything to do with the current team means that there will be an increased confidence and swagger in the Turkish team as they line up tonight.

Admittedly, Turkey have lost their first choice ‘keeper following Demirel’s ‘rush of blood’, but let’s just take a moment to consider the positions of the starting stoppers tonight in the CPI. Rustu Recber is sitting comfortably at number 8, and where is Herr Lehmann? Oh yes, I see. Down there at number 10. Despite playing 3 more games than Rustu, he still hasn’t been good enough to amass the mighty 1366 CPI points that the Turkish number 2 has gained.

And if there is one place superiority is important, no doubt it’s between the sticks. Let’s face it, Jens Lehmann doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, especially when you look at one or two of his gaffes that he has committed in the last few years. So that’s Turkey with recent history and a better keeper.

Then there is the Turkish style of play to consider. We at Euro2008statistics.com reckon that Turkey will prove difficult to break down, frustrating the Germans. They may well play 10 men behind the ball, and hope to catch them on the break as they throw more and more players at the unbreakable wall of red. Consider that Turkey have only ever scored once in the first half at the Euros, and have scored 6 of their 9 total championship goals at this tournament. That guarantees Germany are in for a tough second half, and if they haven’t got it sewn up by then are likely to face an onslaught for the last period of the match. So that’s recent history, a better keeper and a second half to blow Germany away.

What we will agree with Alexander on is that this match should bring together two nations in a friendly festival of football (the Turkish ex-pat community in Germany is huge). We also concur that whoever loses should do so gracefully and thus maintain the harmonious solidarity that has so far blessed the Euros.

That said, there’s a fair chance Turkey could cause an upset and the Germans may well start whingeing about dirty play and so forth…..let’s see how the game pans out.

Alexander from Clubfans.de has proposed a debate, in which he here attempts to justify why Germany will beat Turkey tonight. Translated from his pages.

• our recent history against Turkey is good, in 17 games 11 win, 3 draws and same number of losses with 40:10 goals

• we are placed 5 in the FIFA rankings, 15 places ahead of Turkey.

• our players have a (nominal) value of 234 million Euros compared with Turkey’s 107.

• Germany will start with all players, 6 from the Turkey team can’t play.

• The German goal keeper remembered his former powers during the tournament while the Turkish no 1 can’t play because of his red card.

• amongst the top defenders each a German and a Turk, but the Turk is injured

• amongst the top mid-fielders of this tournament are two Germans but no Turkish players.

• or amongst the top strikers where two Germans (Podolski placed even 3^rd [of all]) will meet two Turks but, guessed right, the best striker Nihat is injured. (short info for clubfans on the side: Charisteas is ranked 16 on the power rating, before Ibra… and only short after Torres, …).

• this all you could quote but still nobody will be able to tell you how the match tonight will end. Perhaps that’s the nice part of football.

• Turkey has team spirit, determination heart and passion (in their baggage) – and filled with confidence after the prelude loss against the Portugese all three games were bended in sometimes dramatical fashion.

• Germany in contrast – meanwhile oscillating between overestimation (sometimes from outside, sometimes from inside) and depression – towards an inner belief made up from a mix of ability, tactics and team spirit, one can win that tournament

The development of the game will be decisive, if Germany is able to impose their game on Turkey, as they did with Portugal and the Czechs, than I do not believe Turkey can repeat their previous games (the Croatia match left off since the Croatians didn’t want anything but to deny Turkey to play). In my opinion too much of the individual league of the injured Nihat and Emre are missing. And for a match played from secured defensive they miss the good playing Volkan as well as Servet or Emre. - If Germany will reasonably get into their play, and chances will arise and the one or other may be used, than this will be a match developing as anybody will have guessed BUT football can process totally different, one penalty, a situation, an injury, a sending-off, an individual error or a Turkish team intoxicated at the chance of victory. This is what makes this sport so fascinating.

One can only hope that both teams not imitate the cowardly football of the other teams (who deserved their retirement from the tournament) but their good capacity as yet, particular since they depended upon. Than this could become a football party amongst friends Because particularly here in Frankfurt Turks are living in exile very close to Germans so that one is almost unable to recognise any borders– last but not least some of the enlarged circle of players from the Turkish national team are grown up in Germany or having family bonds there. Also remarkable that German trainers, like Daum and Feldkamp or now also Skibbe, gain high reputation in Turkey.

Germany against Turkey – nice that this match once became reality in a semi final of an European Tournament. May the better win and the underdog – also their fans – turn out fair losers. In any case there will be a storm of ecstasy in Germany tonight - either in red or black-red-yellow

Will she be that happy tonight?