Germany

Tonight’s first Euro 2008 semi-final sees a German team seemingly steadied after a shaky group stage (the narrow 1-0 against Austria seeming almost as big a shock as the loss against Croatia), pitted against a Turkish side who just keep on delivering in the final seconds of games.

The key, though, might be down the right flank for both teams. A fresh from suspension Schweinsteiger dominated Germany’s last game, scoring one and providing the other two, whereas the player once bought for his club by a fan who’d won a soft drinks promotion might be forced to make the running for the Turks (Colin Kazim-Richards, for anyone who doesn’t know). The heat maps from the Castrol Index show how right-sided these two players are, and as we all know, wide play in this competition makes a heck of a difference. So which wide guy will make the headlines tonight? And which team has the best left back capable of handling the attacking threat?

Whoever is put in charge of keeping the German back four awake for the first 80 minutes had better be good at his job, because if they are a bit sluggish come the last ten, their defence may well have a problem as the Turkish ‘it’s not over until it’s over’ mentality sees them charging forward in ever-increasing numbers. Turkey have scored only one first half goal in their championship history, and with 8 of their 9 goals coming in the second halves of their matches, odds on this occurring again must be fairly short.

Tom thinks this might go all the way, with Turkey providing a massive end of game push to tie the game at 2-2.

Jack reckons that the Teutonic maestros will triumph 2-0.

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Ah – has been an enjoyable day today, and as much as my heart hankers for more football (48 away from Euro 2008 seems an awful long time), it has been nice to enjoy the break somewhat. However, while others slumber – we continue to keep an eye on the news, and have a quick round up of just a few things we thought you may find interesting.

Firstly, as a site who have extolled the virtues of Michael Ballack since the beginning of the tournament, it’s pleasing to see that one of the best footballing managers in the world agrees with us. Step forward Arsene Wenger who has this to say on the industrious playmaker…

“He makes final balls, good passes, he makes the difference in midfield when it’s needed and when you need him to score a header, he’s there as well. So you can’t fault him. I’m happy for him, because he didn’t always get the respect he deserved when he played in Germany. He leads now. He was quiet for a long time. I felt too quiet. He was leading by example but not with his communication.  It looks like in this tournament he is leading by both.”

Love him? Hate him? Remember, you can vote for your player of the tournament on the CPI about now.

In other news, it will come as no surprise that the Spaniards are a little nervous of the Russians this time around. Cesar at World Cup Blog sums it up nicely suggesting “All jokes aside, this Russian squad is quite different from the side Spain disposed of with ease 4-1 just a few weeks ago. They’re quick, they’re aggressive, they have tremendous pace and they believe they can win this” – and with the possibility of missing Marcos Senna for Thursday’s match, we’d suggest that this is going to be a right-royal scramble.

Oh, and our pal The Gaffer has put up an interesting point of discussion over at EPL Talk – is The European Football Championship better than the World Cup? He says “Over the years, the World Cup has become more about the experience and less about the football. There are many reasons for this, but a major one is the over-commercialization of the sport.” – Do you agree? Pop over and join in the argument…

Yes, in time for the final of Euro 2008, you could be wearing this wonderfully neutral shirt (unless Russia make it, or Germany, in which case you’ll be wearing the right colour). All you need to do is answer an insanely easy question and there could be one winging its way direct to your door. High quality cotton, this plain white tee is bordered with emerald green trim. With a wonderful Castrol logo on the left breast, this exclusive shirt will leave you the envy of all your friends. Their faces will literally be the same colour as the edging. Maybe.

The Castrol Index is running a Player of the Tournament competition, where you could win tickets to the Final of Euro 2008, simply by picking your favourite player so far. Handily, we’re assured that the winner will be chosen in advance of the final match, so you could find yourself sitting in Vienna come Sunday 29^th, watching the best teams thrash it out for glory.

So why not head over there and vote for your favourite, then drop us an email telling us who you voted for, and you could win two competitions for the price of one! Entries close Wednesday 25th June.

There’s a high chance that at least one of the Quarter Finals will go the distance and end in what some dub the ‘nightmare’ of a penalty shoot-out. We’d like to disagree with this term, as there is no more exciting way of separating two teams who have been locked for 120 minutes than the randomness of 10 spot kicks. Let’s face it, the Silver and Golden Goals just didn’t work did they? And the proposal that the teams should play until a goal is scored or all the players collapse through exhaustion just isn’t reasonable in a tournament format where they may have to play again a few days later. Amusing, but inhumane.

In fact, the Castrol Index tells us that neither team playing tonight has taken part in a penalty shoot out in a major tournament, so if it goes the distance, the nerves will surely be jangling. Not so the Germans, who – had the game last night had gone that far – would have stepped up confident in the knowledge that the last penalty missed by a German player in a major tournament was in the World Cup. In 1982.

Half of me hopes this one goes all the way so both sides get a chance to show that they can convert from 12 yards, half that it finishes in normal time in a thriller like last night.

So I’ll go for a 2-1 victory to Croatia, hard-fought and dirty.

Jack is going for a Nihat brace and a surprise 2-0 victory for Turkey.

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It’s not how much of the ball you have, it’s how well you work with it a great footballing philosopher (possibly) once said – and tonight’s eye-opening clash between Portugal and Germany has proven such an adage. Look how Portugal grafted, ploughing forward, blasting in shot after shot from range – but it’s not the numbers that count eh? 

OK – so they may have had 22 shots to Germany’s 11 - 5 more corners than their tri-scoring opponents, but as our half-time post suggested. Germany have just been that much more clinical! Even the late surge couldn’t snare that victory! Now I was tempted to just show the statistics from the game, but far more exciting is the (in my eyes) at least – courtesy of the CPI, here’s a heat map of the most influential player of the tournament thus far.

Yup, you can’t get away from him – Michael Ballack - step forward, and run the hell around the whole pitch whilst dominating the midfield all night. Congratulations sir! Oh, and for a full report of tonight’s game, have a look at 101greatgoals.com.

This looked, after 25 minutes, like it could be an absolute walkover. Germany were ruthless, clinical in their finishing, tireless in the running, awesome all over the pitch. Then Portugal woke up and started to fire on all cylinders. Deco, Simao, Ronaldo and Gomes providing exquisite touches all over the field, and eventually combining to ensure Nuno could fire one home from 7 yards. But which form of attack is going to prevail? A look at the Castrol Index heat maps shows that the German attack has been covering more area of the pitch (but only 228m in total), and fairly biased towards the left, whereas the Portuguese have been fairly central and concentrated. Which tactic will come good? Only time will tell…

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The Castrol Index has released some fascinating figures prior to the Quarter Final stage of Euro 2008, covering every possibility of penalty taking and saving as the grim prospect of cagey matches played to draw looms ever nearer.

The old adage of ‘just whack it down the middle’ might not cut as much mustard amongst the actual players as many commentators think, and to prove them wrong, here’s some rather attractive stats:

Hitting it straight and true seems only to be favoured 11.9% of the time, with spot-kickers favouring the bottom corners. The next image, however, shows that maybe they should have opted for a different approach.

It seems that the ‘down the middle’ option isn’t the best way after all, as presumably keepers diving left or right can still make the save with their legs. Bottom corners (the most popular for takers) also seems to be a safe bet. Trying to lift the ball above a diving keeper has the best pay off in terms of finding the back of the net, but whilst the reward may be high, the risk of missing the target also looms large.

If Portugal wins a spot kick in their Quarter Final with Germany, the figures show that the best option for Ronaldo (the most likely to step up and take the penalty) would be to go to Lehmann’s right. He seems particularly susceptible in this area, but as the majority of Ronaldo’s penalty success in the last two years has been precisely here, the German stopper might pre-empt him and go this way. When Ronaldo tried to change tactics against Barcelona in the Champions League however, and attempt a high risk, high reward kick, he missed the target.

In fact, looking at all the figures, the over arching message is that a penalty taker (especially Ronaldo against Lehmann) should categorically NOT fire it straight down the middle.

Once again, statistics triumph over the long-held ‘wisdom’ of the bloke in the pub. Take that, bloke in the pub.

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