Italy

It’s almost as if the great and the good of European football have their eyes glued to our site, hanging on our every word. It certainly looks as if Luca Toni has paid attention to this morning’s rant about him staying in the centre of the opposition penalty box waiting for the ball to come to him. As if he was just waiting to be told by me what to do, Toni has been looking for the ball in areas he hasn’t ventured into in his first two games (well, a little bit). Obviously booting up and having a read over his pasta breakfast (or whatever Italian footballers have these days), he has taken my - possibly slanderous - accusations of him being ‘lazy’ and ‘arrogant’ to heart and pulled his finger out. He *has* missed an absolute hatful of chances, though, so maybe he needs to buck his ideas up in that department. You get that one for free, Luca, next one we expect tickets, or payment….or something.

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Luca Toni. Two games, one shot on target, one seriously underperforming striker. Given that his form both domestically and internationally pointed towards him bagging a hatful (he was heading the CPI into the competition) and being a potential Golden Boot winner his performance to date has been woeful. A quick look at his heat map from the match against Romania might provide an answer to why he is failing. Whilst other strikers – most noticeably Ruud van Nistelrooy – have played back to goal, collecting the ball from the midfield and creating chances from deep, Toni has resolutely hung around the very centre of the penalty area, waiting for the ball to come to him. Lazy and not a little arrogant if you want our opinion (which you probably don’t), he really needs to up his work rate if he wants to be playing football next week and not lying on a tropical beach.

France’s reputation as a solid side is on the wane, as their defence has visibly weakened and they have started conceding more goals. Domenech has been in charge for 52 games since Euro 2004, and in the first 33 of these his team didn’t concede once. Then the ‘slide’ began, as over the course of the next 15 games they let 1 goal in. The subsequent four matches saw two going past the keeper, and of course in the game against the Netherlands 4 crossed Coupet’s line. If this trend continues in the same vein, Italy can be confident of getting at least 12 in the first half, but somehow I can’t see this happening.

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Proof once again that it isn’t just the eyes of Europe that are glued (well, kind of, unless it’s Greece vs. Russia, which we watched out of politeness) to the current tournament being played out in Austria and Switzerland, we bring you news and opinion this fine morning from around the world.

Du Guodong, the editor of China View, brings us news that Leo Beenhakker has refused to step down as national coach of Poland following his team’s frankly lacklustre performance at Euro 2008. His extended contract saw his job safe until 2010, but that was signed before the tournament, and rumours abound that he might be receiving a Polish equivalent of a P45 before long.

The blog of The World Game, Australian-based sports show, reports that Italian coach Donadoni is expecting the Netherlands to do the Azzurri a favour and defeat Romania tonight, allowing his side to go through. They report that Donadoni has said if he was to put himself in a Dutch player’s boots, he wouldn’t want to be asked to lose against Romania, just to prevent Italy or France going through, going as far as to say he would be ‘humiliated’.

Sulmaan Ahmad, from Goal.com, holds a different view however. He reckons that Donadoni is going to make ‘wholesale changes’ to his side tonight, which could gift the French an easy ride through to the next round. This replay of the World Cup final revolves around the result in the other game, but literally any outcome is still possible, including a penalty shootout. Sulmaan thinks the ‘bragging rights’ for this one are too big to see a dull 0-0 played out, so roll on the goalfest!

Read the small print! 2010! 10, I said!

The Malaysia Star (yes, that’s Malaysia in the Far East, writing on the Euros – that’s the power of football) reports that the old powerhouses of European football – France, Italy and Germany – are spent forces ‘clearly past their sell by date’ having to face up to the young guns of the Netherlands, Spain and Croatia, led by coaches such as van Basten and Bilic, who have the hunger that the likes of Domenech and Donadoni just don’t have.

Tvenne from OleOle has provided a round up of the tournament so far after each team has played two games. For those who haven’t been paying attention a chastisement - ‘shame on you’ he says ‘because you’ve missed a great tournament’. He argues that games with two ‘less skilled’ teams often provide the best entertainment (er…Netherlands vs. Italy, or France?) and quotes the Turkey vs. Switzerland game as an example of ‘just amazing’ football. He concludes by saying the Dutch are looking favourites with their goals coming from all angles and players and a goalkeeper playing at ‘possibly the best level of his career’. Or Spain.

Over at EPL Talk, The Gaffer thinks there is a player who holds the key to the Netherlands’ success, and its one that doesn’t make the headlines. Orlando Engelaar is a rangy midfielder who frustrated Italy’s attack by outjumping Toni, but also provided many of the telling passes in attack. By utilising the stats provided by the Castrol Index, The Gaffer managed to show how Engelaar changes his game depending on the opposition….cunning stuff, and it just goes to show the power of statistics in providing insights into the game.

An outstanding save from Buffon sees Mutu’s penalty - and Romania’s dream of emulating the Dutch and beating the World Champions - crumble to dust. Italy will be happy to come out of the game with a point, but one from two games isn’t the best return. Not sure if a coach has ever been sacked after two games of a tournament, but Donadoni has to be worried about the dole queue right now.

Stats-wise, the main thing of note was the defence of both teams. Italy looked like the most threatening team in the end (despite Romania’s occasional forays through the middle, because their defence covered more of the pitch. Nowadays, and especially in international football, staying at the back isn’t always the sole job for a back four. Look at the heat maps and tell me which team you think was most attacking if you hadn’t seen the game.

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The Romanian attack is defending for all it’s worth. If that makes sense. Look at the work being done by the front line in getting back to help their team mates, compared to the Italian forwards, who are simply staying forward. And that will make the front line of the team in blue much fresher and alert when it comes to creating a scoring chance. Let’s see how this finishes, but I reckon the Italians have more goals in them.

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Busiest man in the opening 15 minutes was Romania’s Petre, who covered a staggering 2010m. In 15 minutes. Take a look at his heat map for where he was plying his trade, and it quickly shows the right wing is being exploited to the full.

The final 10 minutes saw Romania defending for all they were worth, but as the heat map for the Italian attack shows, none of the forward motion is coming from wide. I’m sure if you’ve read anything on this site before, you’ll know that the stats show wide play gets results at the tournament. Look at the map below and it’s clear that the Azzurri are going straight down the middle.

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