Netherlands

Adrian Mutu, histrionics at missing the penalty against Italy aside, is beginning to emerge in this tournament as a true threat, and one which the Dutch would do well to watch closely. Probing the inside left channel, as his Castrol Index heat map shows, he could exploit a probably weakened (read rested) Netherlands defence. That Romania have only had five shots in their first two matches is a moot point. Mutu has had four of them, and must surely find his (long) range soon, so look out for him peppering the Dutch keeper from the edge of the box, although in the outstanding form that he has been in so far – if playing – Van der Sar should swallow these right up.

The Dutch are proving that having no fear and going all out for victory even if the opponents are World Champions or World Cup runners up is the best policy to take in the Group Of Death – or any tournament where you only have three games in which to prove yourselves. Scoring seven goals in their first two matches, the Netherlands have got the highest shot conversion rate of all the teams so far, standing currently at 25%. That’s 28 shots in two games, compared to Romania’s 5, and considering the Dutch have played France and Italy, that’s not bad going. An albeit weakened side tonight might well have a concerted effort at destroying Romania, safe in the knowledge that they are already group champions and being caught on the break is of no importance.

Stats powered by Castrolindex.com

The Malaysia Star (yes, that’s Malaysia in the Far East, writing on the Euros – that’s the power of football) reports that the old powerhouses of European football – France, Italy and Germany – are spent forces ‘clearly past their sell by date’ having to face up to the young guns of the Netherlands, Spain and Croatia, led by coaches such as van Basten and Bilic, who have the hunger that the likes of Domenech and Donadoni just don’t have.

Tvenne from OleOle has provided a round up of the tournament so far after each team has played two games. For those who haven’t been paying attention a chastisement - ‘shame on you’ he says ‘because you’ve missed a great tournament’. He argues that games with two ‘less skilled’ teams often provide the best entertainment (er…Netherlands vs. Italy, or France?) and quotes the Turkey vs. Switzerland game as an example of ‘just amazing’ football. He concludes by saying the Dutch are looking favourites with their goals coming from all angles and players and a goalkeeper playing at ‘possibly the best level of his career’. Or Spain.

Over at EPL Talk, The Gaffer thinks there is a player who holds the key to the Netherlands’ success, and its one that doesn’t make the headlines. Orlando Engelaar is a rangy midfielder who frustrated Italy’s attack by outjumping Toni, but also provided many of the telling passes in attack. By utilising the stats provided by the Castrol Index, The Gaffer managed to show how Engelaar changes his game depending on the opposition….cunning stuff, and it just goes to show the power of statistics in providing insights into the game.

The mighty win over France last night for the Netherlands means that they are set fair to be named tournament favourites this morning. 7 goals in two games against the World Champions and World Cup Finalists ensures that opponents will be quaking for the next few games when they face the Orange tide.

Raven from OleOle talks of the fashion in which the Dutch managed to ‘demolish’ a French side that were much-vaunted pre-tournament, but appear to be in freefall. He praises the attacking substitution at half time, when everyone was expecting France to beef up their front line is was the Dutch who brought Robben on. The ‘unbelievable teamwork’ displayed for van Persie’s goal caught Raven’s eye too, and he can’t wait for the next Netherlands match.

Over at The World Cup Blog (in their excellent Euro 2008 section), Jeff puts the French perspective forward. Suppose you hadn’t watched the game, he says, and were told that in a major competition, with their best side out, France got beat 4-1, you too would be ‘shell-shocked and numb’. He praises the ‘fantastic finishing’ and ‘quality’ forward play, but wonders where Benzema was.

For those of you as fascinated by stats as we are, Daniel Finkelstein has provided an explanation of how the CPI ratings work in a piece in the Times. The pitch is divided into zones, and moves starting in each one of these zones is rated as to how likely it will be to result in a goal. There are many variables – it is football, you know – but the higher scores are gained when there is less probability of that action being successful. A long range pass, a goal that is started from your own penalty area, a save from point blank distance will all score highly. Get over to the article to get a more detailed view from a professional.

Yes, we’re brilliant, we even clap ourselves.

It’s not often we agree with John Motson, but that certainly was ‘international football at its very, very best…exhilarating for the observer’. Wow. What a game.

A closer look at the strikers’ heat maps (we love heat maps, we do) shows exactly why the Dutch were better. Ruud van Nistelrooy was immense tonight, without getting the glory. Every pass was precise, every touch deft. He moved for the ball, came back to help the defence, and was always available when the Netherlands broke. Compared to Thierry Henry, who seemed to stick to his role (didn’t all the French players) - even when the backs were to the wall - and give a Gallic sgrug if it didn’t go his way. That was the difference, and the stats prove it.

Now the lacklustre French have to beat the World Champions to stay in!

Stats powered by http://www.castrolindex.com

Earlier in the day, we wrote that the wide positions would hold the key to this game, but a closer look at the stats after an hour show that it’s actually the players in the middle of the park that are dictating affairs. It seems that France are very much playing in position, if you’re a midfielder, you play in the middle of the park. The Dutch, however, have a more relaxed attitude to things (as you might expect), and allow their players to have a bit of freedom. Have to say the laissez-faire attitude is coming up roses for van Basten’s side…take a look and see if you agree - current score 3-1 to the Orangemen.

Stats from http://www.castrolindex.com

In the first 15 minutes, van der Vaart and Toulalan are the busiest players, having covered 2022 and 1972 metres respectively. Toulalan was France’s best player statistically last time out, and van der Vaart is always hard-working. But take a look at where they are doing their work. The French player is playing very much within a zone, whereas the Ducthman has obviously got licence to roam. Let’s see which pays the dividends.

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We’ve said it before (actually only just last night), and we’re bound to say it again before this tournament is over, but if you’ve got full backs who aren’t willing to take a punt and power down the touchlines, then you’ve not got much of a chance. A point proved by the Dutch in their opener against Italy, who exploited the wide positions beautifully, and crossed with precision. In fact we have a stat to support this fact (when do we ever not?), and it shows that the Netherlands are top of the pile when it comes to completing crosses. 33.3% might not seems a great deal, but when you know that one in every three is going to be met with a scoring chance, firing them in from wide seems like common sense.

Whether Jeremy Toulalan is playing today depends on the fitness of Patrick Viera, but he did himself no harm in the 0-0 against Romania. He has the most touches of any man on the field with 111, was successful in all eight of his attempted tackles and ran as far in the last 15 minutes as he did in the first. Quite an effort and one of a man clearly playing for his place.

So who will win out tonight? Tom thinks the Dutch will complete an historic double and ease to a 2-0 success.

Jack reckons that the crazy Orange men will triumph by a massive 6-0!!

As ever, our stats were powered by http://www.castrolindex.com