Netherlands

Castrol Performance Index ambassador Arsene Wenger has been speaking about the tournament in general, and what the CPI can tell us about certain aspects of the games we have seen.

He reckons a big part of the reason that the games have been quite under par has been the psychological pressure that the players are under not to lose, leaving them a ‘little apprehensive’ about committing too much to the game or throwing their force forwards and conceding on the break. The ‘mental pressure’ of having ‘the weight of a country on their shoulders’ is obviously telling, but the Arsenal manager has had a look at the CPI stats, and has found some interesting points to show it isn’t all just in the mind.

He noticed that Croatia collectively covered 105km in their game with Austria, and commented that in the Champions League and Premier League he’d expect to see a figure around 115-125 km. He didn’t put the lack of work rate down to the players being tired after long domestic seasons though, more that they haven’t played for 3 or 4 weeks and ‘can’t sustain the pace of a top level game’. He expects distances and pace to improve as the tournament goes on.

As far as the France – Romania games goes, Wenger saw that the French were frustrated by the deep defending of their opponents, who didn’t ‘leave any space behind them’ for Les Bleus to attack. As the Romanian defence’s heat map below shows they certainly were packing the central area in and around the edge of the penalty area, which ultimately succeeded as a strategy and frustrated the French no end.

What Wenger has noticed is a change of tactics once a team goes ahead. ‘Holland scored first and Italy had to take more chances’, which resulted in them leaving themselves open at the back. He ended with a stark warning for any team that concedes in the tournament – ‘84% of the time [he’s talking in general], the team that scores first wins the big games’. Certainly true of the games so far in Euro 2008, so let’s see if this pattern continues through the tournament.

Over at The Guardian, Barney Ronay has some interesting analysis of Euro 2008, where it is going wrong, and how some teams are getting it so right.

He pays homage to the exciting attacking systems employed by teams such as Germany – Podolski (an attacker) playing on the left wing, but joining in the attack whenever possible – and Portugal – giving Deco a central role, but allowing him to roam freely. The true key though, appears to be the role that the full backs are playing. Bosingwa and Ferreira barrelling forward gave Portugal extra men up front, Lahm for Germany provided crosses from the right and even when Croatia were ‘under the cosh’ against Austria, Pranjic was leading the attack. Feisty stuff from a left-back, and much copied by the successful Dutch, Spanish and (to a certain extent) the French. His theories are supported by the heat maps from the CPI.

There’s plenty of comment on Barney’s article, so why not head over and join in the fray?

Clockwork Orange are in raptures! What a performance, and what a game… Total football is back in town, and despite Italy keeping themselves in the game in terms of possession and effort, the superior finishing, and delightful skill on the ball of the Dutch has paid off. They have stormed to the top of group C, leaving the hapless world champions gazing starry-eyed in their wake. 

Although only 15% of Dutch ex-pats thought that Holland could win the tournament, it’s likely to be a few more now…. Just look at the stats. Covering 3,500 metres more than the Italians in the 90 minutes, Holland really shone in front of goal.

Despite the fact Gennaro Gattuso covered more ground than anyone else, his efforts were wasted – and the World Champions are already looking shaky. They’ll need true heart to come back from this, and should take inspiration from Gattuso’s performance and his graft throughout the game… They’ll need a whole lot though!

Just taken a look at the possesion graph on the CPI, and interesting to see that the game is still on a knife edge, despite Holland’s dominating scoreline. Questions have been asked of the Dutch defence, mistakes have been made by the likes of Khalid Boulahrouz throughout the season - and Luca Toni came into the tournament as statistically the best striker in qualifying, other than the injured Eduardo.

Perhaps if Italy could convert their set piece dominance, they could get back in the game.

I’ve been tipping them since February, everyone was talking about the World Champions - and look at that… What a magnificent, if aided by the linesman, start to the tournament! 2-0 in the first half hour, and in the first genuinely entertaining game of the tournament thus far, Holland are dominating in terms of goals - and preictably is the often much maligned Dirk Kuyt who is putting a whole lot of graft. Second only to Nigel De Jong in terms of ground covered, he has picked up the top speed on the pitch at 29.8km/h - and dominated the right hand side of the pitch.

‘This is Anfield’ thought Dirk Kuyt could play a part - how right they were! Stats powered by the CPI!

The group of death, arguably one of the most anticipated games in the whole of the Euro 2008 group stages is liable (according to the stats) to be all about the goalkeepers. With Edwin Van Der Sar and Gianluigi Buffon both having wonderful domestic seasons as the CPI stats below show, the big-name strikers are going to have to really be on form to smash any goals past them.

The attacking names on display would grace anyone’s Euro 2008 fantasy squad with Van Nistelrooy, Sneijder, Toni and Del Piero all potentially on display – but will the rapidly aging Italians and classic under-achieving Dutch put on the flair-soaked display one would hope for? Check out Football Media for more insights.

Only time will tell, but one thing to remember is that the strength in depth of these two squads, as this heat map from Saturday’s encounter between Switzerland and Croatia shows. Vaclav Svrko (substitute and goalscorer) who despite only coming on with 34 minutes of the game remaining, managed to cover great swathes of the pitch as the graphic below demonstrates – and make that killer breakthrough.

What money Del Piero doing the same thing?

Jack says Netherlands, Tom goes for Italy

With the scent of newly mown grass, just-painted lines and recently polished tea ladies fresh in their nostrils as the players arrive at the stadium for the first match of the Euro2008 championship, many of them will be already projecting to when they raise the trophy in the hope that this will influence their play. But which player is going to hold the most sway over the next few weeks in the Alpine climes? Who is going to hike his shop window price tag so high that only Saudi royals and Russian oligarchs will be able to pay his wages? We have some chaps standing by to give you their thoughts in the form of our debate, and to get things rolling, Chris Harris from EPLTalk has backed a Dutch player in the form of Wesley Sneijder. Without further ado, and bravely dipping his toe in the water before his arguments get taken up by those backing other player, here’s what he has to say:

“Euro 2008 hasn’t even started yet, but that hasn’t stopped so many pundits who have been writing off Holland’s chances of success in the tournament. The critics keep on pointing at the Dutch defense as a weakness, but what they’re forgetting is the Oranje’s power in midfield and up front.

An integral part of that attack will be Dutch left winger Wesley Sneijder. Born in Utrecht, the 23-year-old midfielder plays his football week-in week-out for Real Madrid. The Dutch winger, who can also play on the right, was such a pivotal player in Real’s success this past season. So often Sneijder floated balls from the left wing into the box with inch-perfect crosses and passes to clinical finishers such as fellow Dutchman Ruud van Nistelrooy, Raul and Robinho — to name just a few.

The Netherlands has the difficult task of getting out of their first round group, nicknamed the Group Of Death. Opponents that Sneijder and his teammates will be going up against are Italy, Romania and France.

Over at Euro2008Statistics.com, the web site rates “the left-footed strike of the Netherlands’ Wesley Sneijder” among the best of the best in the tournament. Capped by his country 43 times (with 8 goals), Sneijder has made 30 appearances for Real Madrid and scored an impressive 9 goals.

Left footed players are a rare quality. Just ask England. While the Netherlands are arguably weak in the back, the Dutch should be able to counter that by maintaining more possession in midfield and scoring more goals. Wesley Sneijder, the Dutch winger, will be a key component of Holland’s success.”

So it’s down to you out there to get yourselves over to the Castrol Performance Index and find the facts that prove your hero will have more influence than ‘The Sneijdster’ (as his friends almost definitely don’t call him).