Portugal

Well, hands up who didn’t see that coming? Fairly predictable victory for the Portuguese, but Turkey actually provided a spirited defence. Even if the four man unit at the back only covered half the distance of their opposition quartet, they still kept the marauding hoardes at bay…well, them and the woodwork.

Their attack worked their socks off, too, covering 36027m to the Portuguese 15471m. But it didn’t come up with much in the way of palpable chances. A few near misses, but nothing like Portugal. But saying that, they only had 53% of the ball, they just did more with it when they had it to make them look mlike the dominant side. A quick look at the heat maps shows that Portugal played mostly in the middle of the park, whereas Turkey were pushing down the flanks a lot more. It was the final ball that did for the Turks, though, coupled with strong defence from Portugal’s Pepe (he of the first goal) and Carvalho.

So, quite close according to most of the stats, but the one that counts for most is the one that will be printed at the top of all the reports in the newspapers tomorrow. Final score, Portugal 2, Turkey 0.

Just seconds after the 2nd blatant dive (unpunished) from a Turkish player trying to buy a penalty, Portugal once more hit the post, having seen Simao absolutely scythed by the defender. Good advantage played by the ref.

Stats-wise, the Turkish defence have covered only HALF of what the Portuguese back four have managed. 17331m as opposed to 8919m says something…but are the Turkish defenders just standing still, or do the Portuguese clear the ball instead of hoofing it and staying where they are?

Despite spending a lot of time on the ground, the Turks have only been awarded 6 free kicks, as opposed to the 15 they have conceded.

Ronaldo hasn’t set this game alight yet, but his heat map shows his preferred hunting ground to be the forward right channel.

Centre back Pepe scores a wonderfully worked goal. Portugal up 1-0

After 15 minutes, Ronaldo (predictably) is the fastest player on the field, notching up 28.45 km/h, by far the fleetest of foot seen in the tournament so far. Pepe has covered 1437m, but Erdinc of Turkey beats him with 1582. Compared to the same time in the last match, these guys are 500m fresher (lazier? slower?) than their Swiss and Czech counterparts. Let’s see how it develops in the next few minutes. Game pace is frenetic, but only in patches, compared to the full tempo game earlier.

Possession-wise, Portugal are all over the Turks, with 67% of the ball. Sounds from that like the Portuguese are all over them, but the Turkish side are using the small glimpses of the ball that they have wisely. The Turks have also spent a LOT of time on the ground. Moaning.

After 30 minutes, situation remains the same, although Portugal have come within a coat of paint of scoring from a wicked Ronaldo free kick. Good fingertips from the Turkish keeper.

OK – no offence to anyone of a Turkish persuasion, but on the inaugural day of Euro 2008 the evening kick off is all about one man – and whether he starts next season at Real Madrid or Manchester United…. Tonight Portugal – Ronaldo is all yours!

Even Chelsea fans would have a hard time denying that the talismanic 23 year-old was simply stunning in the Premier League, 42 goals in all competitions as he led United to Premier league and CL triumph tell their own story,and although he has turned it on for the national team too – is it not quite to the same extent.

For as this statistics direct from the Castrol Performance Index show beneath, Cristiano converts roughly one in every four shots for Portugal, and if the Turkish defence is as leaky as one suspects it may be – Ronnie’s going to open up an awful lot of chances with his electric pace.

The key for Portugal however seems to be keeping the largely ineffective Turkish strikers at bay, by forcing them into long-range efforts. Take a look at the CPI graph below, which shows the destination of Turkey’s 20 efforts against international also-rans Belarus. An embarrassment of shooting riches they won’t be afforded today.

We can’t help but think that coach Fatih Terim has shot himself in the foot by leaving out class (if elderly) striker Hakan Sükür, despite the fact he was Turkey’s top scorer in the qualifying campaign with five goals. Villarreal’s Nihat and Middlesbrough’s Tuncay are Turkey’s current top scorers with 15 goals, but the latter has failed to score in his last eight competitive games for the national team.

Jack Predicts: 2-0

Tom predicts: 2-1

9 days… That’s it! Just over a week until the showcase for international European football kicks off, and there’s clearly no better way to prepare yourself than with a free, downloadable wall chart that can be printed off, slapped on the wall – and diligently filled in until the final on the 29^th.

Who will win? Well my cheeky prediction is for a Netherlands vs. Germany final, with The Oranje coming out surprising winners – but to make up your own mind using the stats, check out castrolindex.com.

Meanwhile, come get your fill – you’re more than welcome to download our free Euro 2008 wallchart here, or by clicking on the picture below. Easily printable on A4 paper (so you can run off a load at work and no one will notice), it is complete with all the info you’ll need (date, times, venues etc) – as well as statistically the very best XI in qualifying.

Download it here… (or right click on the picture and select ’save link as’)

euro2008wallchart_uk.pdf

So Euro 2008 is just days away now (it really is!), and with everyone looking to get their pre-tournament favourites decided so they can support a winning team for once, bash the bookies and enjoy what promises to be a feast of football – those boffins at Castrol have come up with some rather interesting statistics showing the percentage likelihood of each national team, progressing to the quarter finals, semi finals, finals – and eventual winners of course!

Now we’re all pretty sure that Germany are the favourites for the tournament – after all, the punters got thoroughly behind their formidable squad (as low as 3/1 with some bookmakers), but some of Castrol’s other insights may surprise you. Blinded no doubt by Cristiano Ronaldo’s spectacular double winning season for Manchester United – Portugal are widely touted as 3^rd favourites – a confidence not backed up by the statistics, which see misfiring Portugal (who, let’s remember, finished behind Poland in their qualifying group) are given just 5% chance of snatching the tournament (the same percentage as Croatia and widely unfancied Switzerland).

Meanwhile, Romania their (quite frankly incredible) opening odds of 50/1 with some bookies, with statistics suggesting that they have more chance of tasting world-stage glory for the first time than world-champions Italy! No doubt scared off by their devastatingly tough group, The Tricolorii faithful should take solace in these statistics.

And whether or not you agree, there’s no doubt that time after time, the statistics have offered a look behind the misconceptions and vitriol of those who believe they know everything about football.

UEFA EURO 2008

Team - Progress to Quarter Final - Progress to Semi Final - Progress to Final - Win

Germany - 83% - 51% - 32% - 17%
Spain - 79% - 42% - 24% - 14%
Netherlands - 55% - 33% - 18% - 10%
Czech Republic - 63% - 36% - 20% - 10%
France - 54% - 32% - 17% - 10%
Romania - 49% - 27% - 14% - 7%
Italy - 42% - 23% - 12% - 6%
Switzerland - 51% - 25% - 12% - 5%
Portugal - 51% - 25% - 11% - 5%
Croatia - 55% - 26% - 11% - 5%
Sweden - 45% - 17% - 7% - 3%
Greece - 43% - 15% - 6% - 2%
Turkey - 34% - 14% - 6% - 2%
Poland - 37% - 14% - 5% - 2%
Russia - 33% - 10% - 3% - 1%
Austria - 26% - 9% - 3% - 1%

Of course, the biggest surprise of this table is that Austria have a 1% chance of lifting the trophy – I’d happily stake my kidneys against that eventuality – but this could make for some interesting food for thought, and we’ll see how well the percentages stack up in a little under two months time.

Football managers don’t always make the right decisions (see Graham Taylor subbing off Gary Lineker against Sweden in Euro 92) – but it has been known for bosses to fly in the face of popular, public and (to be honest) blatantly obvious opinion – and somehow come up smelling of roses. After all, who could forget Alf Ramsay’s decision to play hat-trick hero Geoff Hurst instead of Jimmy Greaves back in 66?

But such fond patriotic memories aside, it’s time to look to the modern day, Euro 2008 squads, and most notably the news that Big Phil Scolari has lived up to his rhetoric “You have to be positive and not be nervous about making changes or bringing through players” – by leaving out Portugal’s highest-scoring midfielder in the CPI… 30 year old midfielder Maniche.

And while one can understand that his absence is likely down to the fact he rarely plays a full 90 minutes – either domestically or for the Selecção das Quinas, we here at euro2008statistics.com, think that the exclusion of the dynamo midfielder is a very odd decision indeed. After all, although he may not be fully fit for 90 minutes at a time, such influential players are vital for tournaments like this, even coming off the bench – and one thing for sure is that the famous long-range belters of Maniche will NOT be missed by the opposition!

Petit (300 CPI points) will now partner Veloso behind the attacking midfielders, while 25-year-old Raúl Meireles of Porto, included at Maniche’s expense, provides cover.

In other news, Turkey coach Fatih Terim seems to have ended something of an era in Turkish football, by leaving veteran forward Hakan Şükür out of the Euro 2008 provisional squad, replacing him with the pacey Villarreal forward, Kahveci Nihat. Nihat, or ‘El Turko’ to his friend has 14 goals in 53 games, and amassed 938 CPI points with two, high-quality goals in the last two qualifiers.