Romania

9 days… That’s it! Just over a week until the showcase for international European football kicks off, and there’s clearly no better way to prepare yourself than with a free, downloadable wall chart that can be printed off, slapped on the wall – and diligently filled in until the final on the 29^th.

Who will win? Well my cheeky prediction is for a Netherlands vs. Germany final, with The Oranje coming out surprising winners – but to make up your own mind using the stats, check out castrolindex.com.

Meanwhile, come get your fill – you’re more than welcome to download our free Euro 2008 wallchart here, or by clicking on the picture below. Easily printable on A4 paper (so you can run off a load at work and no one will notice), it is complete with all the info you’ll need (date, times, venues etc) – as well as statistically the very best XI in qualifying.

Download it here… (or right click on the picture and select ’save link as’)

euro2008wallchart_uk.pdf

So Euro 2008 is just days away now (it really is!), and with everyone looking to get their pre-tournament favourites decided so they can support a winning team for once, bash the bookies and enjoy what promises to be a feast of football – those boffins at Castrol have come up with some rather interesting statistics showing the percentage likelihood of each national team, progressing to the quarter finals, semi finals, finals – and eventual winners of course!

Now we’re all pretty sure that Germany are the favourites for the tournament – after all, the punters got thoroughly behind their formidable squad (as low as 3/1 with some bookmakers), but some of Castrol’s other insights may surprise you. Blinded no doubt by Cristiano Ronaldo’s spectacular double winning season for Manchester United – Portugal are widely touted as 3^rd favourites – a confidence not backed up by the statistics, which see misfiring Portugal (who, let’s remember, finished behind Poland in their qualifying group) are given just 5% chance of snatching the tournament (the same percentage as Croatia and widely unfancied Switzerland).

Meanwhile, Romania their (quite frankly incredible) opening odds of 50/1 with some bookies, with statistics suggesting that they have more chance of tasting world-stage glory for the first time than world-champions Italy! No doubt scared off by their devastatingly tough group, The Tricolorii faithful should take solace in these statistics.

And whether or not you agree, there’s no doubt that time after time, the statistics have offered a look behind the misconceptions and vitriol of those who believe they know everything about football.

UEFA EURO 2008

Team - Progress to Quarter Final - Progress to Semi Final - Progress to Final - Win

Germany - 83% - 51% - 32% - 17%
Spain - 79% - 42% - 24% - 14%
Netherlands - 55% - 33% - 18% - 10%
Czech Republic - 63% - 36% - 20% - 10%
France - 54% - 32% - 17% - 10%
Romania - 49% - 27% - 14% - 7%
Italy - 42% - 23% - 12% - 6%
Switzerland - 51% - 25% - 12% - 5%
Portugal - 51% - 25% - 11% - 5%
Croatia - 55% - 26% - 11% - 5%
Sweden - 45% - 17% - 7% - 3%
Greece - 43% - 15% - 6% - 2%
Turkey - 34% - 14% - 6% - 2%
Poland - 37% - 14% - 5% - 2%
Russia - 33% - 10% - 3% - 1%
Austria - 26% - 9% - 3% - 1%

Of course, the biggest surprise of this table is that Austria have a 1% chance of lifting the trophy – I’d happily stake my kidneys against that eventuality – but this could make for some interesting food for thought, and we’ll see how well the percentages stack up in a little under two months time.

In a belated rejoinder to fellow blogger and bearded wonderboy Jack’s Best XI selected purely from the statistical analysis provided by the Castrol Performance Index, I decided to buck his trend and go the other way (not like that!)

In the spirit of science, and always keen to push the boundaries of football-based bloke-in-the-pub knowledgeless buffoonery, I’ve decided to prove that science and statistics don’t lie. In blatant disregard for the top-rated CPI and what my head tells me would be the best X1 team, I’ve decided to go with my heart and choose eleven of the most entertaining players, or those with a good story behind their route to the Euro Finals, or just a funny name.

So taking a deep breath, and waving my chance of winning the final tickets goodbye, let’s take a look at the ‘stars’ that have made it onto my select eleven:

1. Goalkeeper – Edwin van der Saar (NED) – A natural choice for an avid Manchester United fan, but also because he kept 8 clean sheets and only let in 5 goals during qualifying. France’s Gregory Coupet is rated highest, and I’ve never heard of him.
   

2. Defence – Adam Kokoszka (POL) – Poland finished top of their group, but the leaky defence allowed 12 goals, more than the 3 teams below them in the final table. For that reason alone, winning despite conceding, a defender has to go in the team.
   

3. Defence – Alpay Ozalan (TUR) – The team got off to a cracking start to the qualifying, not conceding a single goal in the first 3 games before things fell apart a bit. Former Aston Villa backman should step up and keep strikers at bay.
   

4. Defence – Alexei Berezutsky (RUS) – Was part of a defence that limited England’s Rooney, Owen, Crouch, Cole and Gerrard to one goal, so must be some kop. He’s there for that reason and that reason alone.
   

5. Defence – Phillip Lahm (GER) – German defender. Enough said.
   

6. Midfield – Bastien Schweinsteiger (GER) – Made the top 10 midfielders (just), but in this team for his surname only. ‘Pig riser’, I ask you.
   

7. Midfield – Emre Belozoglu (TUR) – Usually seen collecting splinters in his gluteus maximus on the bench at St. James’ Park, this midfield dynamo shines when he dons the national jersey. Watch out for some spectacular free kicks.
   

8. Midfield – Massimo Ambrosini (ITA) – With only team mate Pirlo breaking into the CPI top 20 midfielders, it seemed a bit silly not to include a member of the Azzurri in this side. Topping the group must have meant that the Italians has something in the middle of the park, and I believe I’ve found it.
   

9. Midfield – Banel Nicolita (ROM) - Romania topped their group yet none of their midfielders made it into the top 20. So what happened? I think they performed as a unit, with no one starring above any others (see Pirlo outshining his Italian comrades for details). I could have chosen any of them, but Nicolita gets in by dint of his first name sounding a bit like banal.
   

10. Striker – Nicolas Anelka (FRA) – Only ranked at 14 by the CPI, a rejuvenated Anelka has sparked following his move to Chelsea and should finally perform at an international tournament.
    

11. Striker – Adrian Mutu (ROM) - Yes, he’s 4^th in the CPI ranking, but Mutu makes it in due to his determined comeback after his potential career-ending disgrace at Chelsea. Bouncebackability of the highest order.
    

Sub - Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink (NED) – Nearly made it, if only in for having the longest name ever to be squeezed onto the back of a football shirt.

And it doesn’t matter for the team, but if I could choose a manager it would have to be Slavan Bilic (CRO) if only for coming to Wembley when he’d already qualified and making his team play as if their lives depended on it. And for not holding an umbrella.

A true fantasy team.

So Chief Referee (or whatever he calls himself) Keith Hackett has announced that diving has almost been eradicated from the game, all on the back of his clever poster campaign (he is of course, assuming the players can read said posters, which could have been his first mistake).

Now then Mr. Hackett, I think it’s time you opened your flipping eyes and watched a few games now and then. I would argue that diving has become more prolific, coupled with an increase in the deplorable habit of players waving the imaginary yellow when they hit the turf. One only has to see in recent weeks the amount of time Mssrs. Drogba, Ronaldo, Gerrard and Cole (both A. and J.) have spent rolling round on the green stuff like someone has just removed a bone from their leg without their permission for proof. Even Drogba’s team mates have taken to ignoring him when his histrionics begin (yesterday’s match with Newcastle was a perfect case in point, with DD eventually hobbling sheepishly back to his own half after play had continued for about 90 seconds after he went down). And Nani’s efforts to conceal his guilt after ‘headbutting’ Lucas Neill were laughable. That said, the 6 foot-tall hard as nails Australian went down quicker than a $5 hooker.

So with the Euros approaching, how is this disease going to be eradicated? And let’s face it, this disease is more prevalent in the continental leagues with players falling over if they sense an opponent within…well, sometimes it seems like if there is anyone on the same pitch they go down cluthcing an ankle. Like every disease it needs a cure, and some cures are drastic. And the cure for this has to be a rash of red cards. Seriously. Dive and you’re off. Let’s see how many times they go down now.

The judges gave DD a 5.8

Yes folks, once again the dozy clots at Euro2008statistics Towers have failed in their mission to lighten and brighten your Thursday with spurious news from around Europe. So I’ll leave Jack to the slumber he was obviously in yesterday (poor little soldier, he’s been a bit busy lately) and instead bring you a belated (again) Random Round Up.

It seems that Signor Capello, relieved of having to actually earn his corn this summer, is backing Spain to win the tournament. Or France. Or Italy. Quite an interesting concept this, putting a little quote out there now, a month before the tournament starts. That way, long after his words are forgotten and one of the three lifts the trophy, he can say he was right and backed them all the way. So never one to miss a trick, I think Switzerland, Czech Republic, Portugal, Turkey, Austria, Croatia, Germany, Poland, Netherlands, Romania, Greece, Sweden and Russia all stand a chance in June. But Spain, Italy and France? Only someone earning a fortune with money to burn would bet on them.

The coaches that will transport the players round the hilly climes of Switzerland and Austria (after they have arrived in individual private jets) have been revealed with some funky paint jobs and intriguing slogans. Voted for by the fans, some of the mottoes need some work, I think:

Portugal – This coach is driven by the Will to Win (Paulo, the regular driver, is ill)
Croatia – With the fans to the top of Europe (mass expedition to climb Mont Blanc?)
Poland - …because only sport and good fun count (which explains why your economy is a mess, and the population drinks 90% vodka to numb the pain. Maybe)

And finally (as Sir Trevor McDonald would say) Michel Platini is rightly encouraging a hard line for racism at the tournament. His quote is a doozy, and should catch the attention of any short-moustachioed-Austrian-megalomaniacs out there looking to abuse players or coaches from the stands. ‘When there are racial incidents, the referee should call off the game.’ Heartily supported by this writer, but the ref that does that would have to have balls of steel.

The wheels on the bus go round and round.

Yes indeed - so statistic fans can get a taster of just what you can expect from our favourite site, pop on down to the Castrol Performance Index, click on ‘Match Tracker’ from around 19:30, and enjoy a statistical feast the likes of which you will have never indulged in before! Ball possession, metres covered, pitch heat maps and so much more, for the following matches:

Not ones to jump on the obvious bandwagon, preferring to wait until less imaginative types have had their fill, today is the day that we at euro2008statistics.com get to celebrate the 99 day countdown to Euro 2008 – and celebrate it we will, with this football related punch – ideal for toasting June’s potential stars.

Ideal for kicking off a prime night out, who not enjoy a jug or two of this with pals whilst watching worldwide football tomorrow:

Here’s how to make your perfect footballing cocktail, and always make sure to (Peter) Cech all around you drink responsibly:

• Begin by liberally splashing around 500ml of (Luca) Toni(c) water (Italian) and another 500ml of Jan Coca-Koller (German) into your cocktail receptacle. Neither shake, nor stir.
• Pour out a large glass of refreshing Baileys and (Cosmin) Contreau (Romania) – and slip tenderly into the mix.
• Mmmm – my favourite – measure out 3 single shots of (Sergio) Rumos (Spain) and pour right in, making sure to shimmy the liquor with aplomb across the surface of the beverage.
• Add a little kick with 2 shots (or 50ml) of Ricard(o) Pernod from Portugal, and if you’re feeling brave, why not chuck in a wee dram of Tequila (Barnetta) (Switzerland)
• For the artist at heart, who is always happier peppering their drinks with the personal touch, add 3 shots of any (Massimo) Oddo spirits you have lying around (Italian).
• Then top off the mixture with a (Ludovic) Magnum of champagne (Switzerland) – and hey presto, your cocktail is ready to kick off the party!

Of course… Before serving, remember to garnish your jug with a slice of (Jens) Lehman (German) and serve with ice in a (Gregory) Coupet from France.

Or perhaps – you could just settle for few cans of Fabio Cannabeero?