Sweden

With a blinder from Zlatan Ibrahimovic, and a rather fortuitous bundle in by Petter Hansson, a game that looked fully open at half time, is now pretty much over and won by the Swedes – who will now be sitting pretty in second spot of Group D if the score remains the same.

Greece have failed to hold out to their clean sheet as they did in the first half… And it’s interesting to note the increase in work-rate of the Scandinavians after the first 45 minutes. Putting in that extra yard of graft seems to have given them the slight edge in this game – and with the team having covered an extra 5,000 metres over the first 75 minutes, perhaps their superior fitness is telling.

Blogabet said that Sweden would not be fit enough to overpower Greece for this one, and I agreed. We were both wrong. Stats powered by the Castrol Performance Index.

The stats don’t lie ladies and gentleman – as is proven by this rather uninspiring statistical breakdown of the first half on the Swedish vs. Greece match, which hasn’t been inspirational thus far.

Despite a few good efforts that rattled the two goalkeepers, it’s not pretty, and Greece are really digging in, ensuring that they don’t lose out early on in the defence of their title. Statistically, they were excellent in qualifying – and one can see why they didn’t concede many. For more info take a look over here…

Even so far though, and we’ll wait to see who takes the upper hand in the second half!

9 days… That’s it! Just over a week until the showcase for international European football kicks off, and there’s clearly no better way to prepare yourself than with a free, downloadable wall chart that can be printed off, slapped on the wall – and diligently filled in until the final on the 29^th.

Who will win? Well my cheeky prediction is for a Netherlands vs. Germany final, with The Oranje coming out surprising winners – but to make up your own mind using the stats, check out castrolindex.com.

Meanwhile, come get your fill – you’re more than welcome to download our free Euro 2008 wallchart here, or by clicking on the picture below. Easily printable on A4 paper (so you can run off a load at work and no one will notice), it is complete with all the info you’ll need (date, times, venues etc) – as well as statistically the very best XI in qualifying.

Download it here… (or right click on the picture and select ’save link as’)

euro2008wallchart_uk.pdf

So Euro 2008 is just days away now (it really is!), and with everyone looking to get their pre-tournament favourites decided so they can support a winning team for once, bash the bookies and enjoy what promises to be a feast of football – those boffins at Castrol have come up with some rather interesting statistics showing the percentage likelihood of each national team, progressing to the quarter finals, semi finals, finals – and eventual winners of course!

Now we’re all pretty sure that Germany are the favourites for the tournament – after all, the punters got thoroughly behind their formidable squad (as low as 3/1 with some bookmakers), but some of Castrol’s other insights may surprise you. Blinded no doubt by Cristiano Ronaldo’s spectacular double winning season for Manchester United – Portugal are widely touted as 3^rd favourites – a confidence not backed up by the statistics, which see misfiring Portugal (who, let’s remember, finished behind Poland in their qualifying group) are given just 5% chance of snatching the tournament (the same percentage as Croatia and widely unfancied Switzerland).

Meanwhile, Romania their (quite frankly incredible) opening odds of 50/1 with some bookies, with statistics suggesting that they have more chance of tasting world-stage glory for the first time than world-champions Italy! No doubt scared off by their devastatingly tough group, The Tricolorii faithful should take solace in these statistics.

And whether or not you agree, there’s no doubt that time after time, the statistics have offered a look behind the misconceptions and vitriol of those who believe they know everything about football.

UEFA EURO 2008

Team - Progress to Quarter Final - Progress to Semi Final - Progress to Final - Win

Germany - 83% - 51% - 32% - 17%
Spain - 79% - 42% - 24% - 14%
Netherlands - 55% - 33% - 18% - 10%
Czech Republic - 63% - 36% - 20% - 10%
France - 54% - 32% - 17% - 10%
Romania - 49% - 27% - 14% - 7%
Italy - 42% - 23% - 12% - 6%
Switzerland - 51% - 25% - 12% - 5%
Portugal - 51% - 25% - 11% - 5%
Croatia - 55% - 26% - 11% - 5%
Sweden - 45% - 17% - 7% - 3%
Greece - 43% - 15% - 6% - 2%
Turkey - 34% - 14% - 6% - 2%
Poland - 37% - 14% - 5% - 2%
Russia - 33% - 10% - 3% - 1%
Austria - 26% - 9% - 3% - 1%

Of course, the biggest surprise of this table is that Austria have a 1% chance of lifting the trophy – I’d happily stake my kidneys against that eventuality – but this could make for some interesting food for thought, and we’ll see how well the percentages stack up in a little under two months time.

As excitement about squad selection ratchets up a notch to absolute boiling point, it’s time to bring a little more news your way on those players who will be packing their bags and heading to the biggest Swiss/Austrian tournament since the famous regional cuckoo-clock off in 1879, and who will be sitting at home with Raul and Trezeguet, presumably weeping throughout the whole month of June.

First, and perhaps most shocking is that Sweden’s 36 year old target-man Henrik Larsson will be challenging Johan Elmander (1,657 CPI points in qualifying from 17 shots on goal) for a starting berth after being picked for Euro 2008, two years after retiring from the international scene(!) What’s for sure, is that come next month, they will both be vying for position alongside “possibly the most over-rated player in the world” (according to Martin O’ Neil) Zlatan Ibrahimovic, whose league-winning brace for Internazionale against Parma suggests that he’s in fine form.

And it’s strike one for form over at the Azzurri team camp too, as Italian coach Roberto Donadoni has included 33-year-old Alessandro del Piero, after presumably reading euro2008statistics blog avidly over the last few weeks. Felipe Inzaghi doesn’t make it though, as tempestuous Real Madrid striker Antonio Cassano travels instead – expect him to be sent off at least once.

Here’s an example from World Cup Blog to show exactly what the petulant red-blooded Italian has been known to get up to in the past.

Donadoni says “It’s not us that have to make the change - he has to do something about it. Antonio is a person that I like a lot and he knows that. He is one of those people that you are unable to dislike. But he is no longer a youngster and he must understand that there are certain things you cannot do. He says that once in a while he loses it but he needs to try to control himself.” How right he is!

So Chief Referee (or whatever he calls himself) Keith Hackett has announced that diving has almost been eradicated from the game, all on the back of his clever poster campaign (he is of course, assuming the players can read said posters, which could have been his first mistake).

Now then Mr. Hackett, I think it’s time you opened your flipping eyes and watched a few games now and then. I would argue that diving has become more prolific, coupled with an increase in the deplorable habit of players waving the imaginary yellow when they hit the turf. One only has to see in recent weeks the amount of time Mssrs. Drogba, Ronaldo, Gerrard and Cole (both A. and J.) have spent rolling round on the green stuff like someone has just removed a bone from their leg without their permission for proof. Even Drogba’s team mates have taken to ignoring him when his histrionics begin (yesterday’s match with Newcastle was a perfect case in point, with DD eventually hobbling sheepishly back to his own half after play had continued for about 90 seconds after he went down). And Nani’s efforts to conceal his guilt after ‘headbutting’ Lucas Neill were laughable. That said, the 6 foot-tall hard as nails Australian went down quicker than a $5 hooker.

So with the Euros approaching, how is this disease going to be eradicated? And let’s face it, this disease is more prevalent in the continental leagues with players falling over if they sense an opponent within…well, sometimes it seems like if there is anyone on the same pitch they go down cluthcing an ankle. Like every disease it needs a cure, and some cures are drastic. And the cure for this has to be a rash of red cards. Seriously. Dive and you’re off. Let’s see how many times they go down now.

The judges gave DD a 5.8

Yes folks, once again the dozy clots at Euro2008statistics Towers have failed in their mission to lighten and brighten your Thursday with spurious news from around Europe. So I’ll leave Jack to the slumber he was obviously in yesterday (poor little soldier, he’s been a bit busy lately) and instead bring you a belated (again) Random Round Up.

It seems that Signor Capello, relieved of having to actually earn his corn this summer, is backing Spain to win the tournament. Or France. Or Italy. Quite an interesting concept this, putting a little quote out there now, a month before the tournament starts. That way, long after his words are forgotten and one of the three lifts the trophy, he can say he was right and backed them all the way. So never one to miss a trick, I think Switzerland, Czech Republic, Portugal, Turkey, Austria, Croatia, Germany, Poland, Netherlands, Romania, Greece, Sweden and Russia all stand a chance in June. But Spain, Italy and France? Only someone earning a fortune with money to burn would bet on them.

The coaches that will transport the players round the hilly climes of Switzerland and Austria (after they have arrived in individual private jets) have been revealed with some funky paint jobs and intriguing slogans. Voted for by the fans, some of the mottoes need some work, I think:

Portugal – This coach is driven by the Will to Win (Paulo, the regular driver, is ill)
Croatia – With the fans to the top of Europe (mass expedition to climb Mont Blanc?)
Poland - …because only sport and good fun count (which explains why your economy is a mess, and the population drinks 90% vodka to numb the pain. Maybe)

And finally (as Sir Trevor McDonald would say) Michel Platini is rightly encouraging a hard line for racism at the tournament. His quote is a doozy, and should catch the attention of any short-moustachioed-Austrian-megalomaniacs out there looking to abuse players or coaches from the stands. ‘When there are racial incidents, the referee should call off the game.’ Heartily supported by this writer, but the ref that does that would have to have balls of steel.

The wheels on the bus go round and round.