Turkey

So now you’ve had a chance to take a closer look at all the players on offer (like a horse breeder checking out the available stock before choosing which to buy), it’s time for you to make your decision on Player Of The Tournament.

The top 3 selections will go up against three chaps picked by the technical experts at UEFA. These 6 players – in one of the most convoluted procedures known to man – will then be assessed by a UEFA Technical Study Group and a winner chosen. This ensures both the public and UEFA have their say in the matter. Leading the charge so far is Turkey’s Arda Turan with 27% of the popular vote, closely followed by Poland’s goalkeeping hero Artur Boruc.

Tranquillo - he like banana!

Here at Euro2008statistics.com though, we’re throwing our weight behind the guy with undoubtedly the coolest name in football. He’ll engender a feeling of calm and peacefulness in you at the mere mention of that name, and his play for ill-fated Switzerland lit up a team that was otherwise tawdry throughout. That man, our new hero, is none other than the mighty Tranquillo Barnetta. There, feel peaceful? Now go vote!

Hands up who thought this would be a stroll in the forest for Germany… Come on, don’t lie - the poor injury-hit Turks laying down and taking a right old battering from their culturally efficient, no-nonsense neighbours. Big-game Ballack bound to pop up with several, and Germany to cruise easily into the final, dismissing the brave Turks with a sweep of their mighty hands. Well no… Because this half has been all about Turkey.

Capatalising on some mighty interesting goalkeeping from Jens Lehmann (for interesting, read bloody awful), Turkey took the lead in that storming first half, and down to some tenacious attacking flair from them, they’ve really got at the Germans. Could this be… Could this REALLY be another massive latter stages shock. I’m erring on the side of no, as I think the injury-hit Turkish side may have problems during the second half with stamina, and having no real options on the bench.

Take a look at this Semhi Senturk heat-map from the CPI for example, which goes someway to demonstrate the lads dominance upfront… We’re in for a big second half!

In response to Alexander from Clubfans.de, who argued very strongly - and with good support from the Castrol Index – that Germany will prevail against Turkey tonight, we give you our defence of the Turks.

Alexander stated that Germany have beaten Turkey 11 times out of 17, but in the last 3 games Turkey have won 2 and drawn one. Germany haven’t won against the Turks since May 1992 – over 16 years ago (!) – and that was in a friendly. The Turkish side certainly have the bragging rights here, and the fact that none of the German regime who were involved in the last victory have anything to do with the current team means that there will be an increased confidence and swagger in the Turkish team as they line up tonight.

Admittedly, Turkey have lost their first choice ‘keeper following Demirel’s ‘rush of blood’, but let’s just take a moment to consider the positions of the starting stoppers tonight in the CPI. Rustu Recber is sitting comfortably at number 8, and where is Herr Lehmann? Oh yes, I see. Down there at number 10. Despite playing 3 more games than Rustu, he still hasn’t been good enough to amass the mighty 1366 CPI points that the Turkish number 2 has gained.

And if there is one place superiority is important, no doubt it’s between the sticks. Let’s face it, Jens Lehmann doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, especially when you look at one or two of his gaffes that he has committed in the last few years. So that’s Turkey with recent history and a better keeper.

Then there is the Turkish style of play to consider. We at Euro2008statistics.com reckon that Turkey will prove difficult to break down, frustrating the Germans. They may well play 10 men behind the ball, and hope to catch them on the break as they throw more and more players at the unbreakable wall of red. Consider that Turkey have only ever scored once in the first half at the Euros, and have scored 6 of their 9 total championship goals at this tournament. That guarantees Germany are in for a tough second half, and if they haven’t got it sewn up by then are likely to face an onslaught for the last period of the match. So that’s recent history, a better keeper and a second half to blow Germany away.

What we will agree with Alexander on is that this match should bring together two nations in a friendly festival of football (the Turkish ex-pat community in Germany is huge). We also concur that whoever loses should do so gracefully and thus maintain the harmonious solidarity that has so far blessed the Euros.

That said, there’s a fair chance Turkey could cause an upset and the Germans may well start whingeing about dirty play and so forth…..let’s see how the game pans out.

Alexander from Clubfans.de has proposed a debate, in which he here attempts to justify why Germany will beat Turkey tonight. Translated from his pages.

• our recent history against Turkey is good, in 17 games 11 win, 3 draws and same number of losses with 40:10 goals

• we are placed 5 in the FIFA rankings, 15 places ahead of Turkey.

• our players have a (nominal) value of 234 million Euros compared with Turkey’s 107.

• Germany will start with all players, 6 from the Turkey team can’t play.

• The German goal keeper remembered his former powers during the tournament while the Turkish no 1 can’t play because of his red card.

• amongst the top defenders each a German and a Turk, but the Turk is injured

• amongst the top mid-fielders of this tournament are two Germans but no Turkish players.

• or amongst the top strikers where two Germans (Podolski placed even 3^rd [of all]) will meet two Turks but, guessed right, the best striker Nihat is injured. (short info for clubfans on the side: Charisteas is ranked 16 on the power rating, before Ibra… and only short after Torres, …).

• this all you could quote but still nobody will be able to tell you how the match tonight will end. Perhaps that’s the nice part of football.

• Turkey has team spirit, determination heart and passion (in their baggage) – and filled with confidence after the prelude loss against the Portugese all three games were bended in sometimes dramatical fashion.

• Germany in contrast – meanwhile oscillating between overestimation (sometimes from outside, sometimes from inside) and depression – towards an inner belief made up from a mix of ability, tactics and team spirit, one can win that tournament

The development of the game will be decisive, if Germany is able to impose their game on Turkey, as they did with Portugal and the Czechs, than I do not believe Turkey can repeat their previous games (the Croatia match left off since the Croatians didn’t want anything but to deny Turkey to play). In my opinion too much of the individual league of the injured Nihat and Emre are missing. And for a match played from secured defensive they miss the good playing Volkan as well as Servet or Emre. - If Germany will reasonably get into their play, and chances will arise and the one or other may be used, than this will be a match developing as anybody will have guessed BUT football can process totally different, one penalty, a situation, an injury, a sending-off, an individual error or a Turkish team intoxicated at the chance of victory. This is what makes this sport so fascinating.

One can only hope that both teams not imitate the cowardly football of the other teams (who deserved their retirement from the tournament) but their good capacity as yet, particular since they depended upon. Than this could become a football party amongst friends Because particularly here in Frankfurt Turks are living in exile very close to Germans so that one is almost unable to recognise any borders– last but not least some of the enlarged circle of players from the Turkish national team are grown up in Germany or having family bonds there. Also remarkable that German trainers, like Daum and Feldkamp or now also Skibbe, gain high reputation in Turkey.

Germany against Turkey – nice that this match once became reality in a semi final of an European Tournament. May the better win and the underdog – also their fans – turn out fair losers. In any case there will be a storm of ecstasy in Germany tonight - either in red or black-red-yellow

Will she be that happy tonight?

Tonight’s first Euro 2008 semi-final sees a German team seemingly steadied after a shaky group stage (the narrow 1-0 against Austria seeming almost as big a shock as the loss against Croatia), pitted against a Turkish side who just keep on delivering in the final seconds of games.

The key, though, might be down the right flank for both teams. A fresh from suspension Schweinsteiger dominated Germany’s last game, scoring one and providing the other two, whereas the player once bought for his club by a fan who’d won a soft drinks promotion might be forced to make the running for the Turks (Colin Kazim-Richards, for anyone who doesn’t know). The heat maps from the Castrol Index show how right-sided these two players are, and as we all know, wide play in this competition makes a heck of a difference. So which wide guy will make the headlines tonight? And which team has the best left back capable of handling the attacking threat?

Whoever is put in charge of keeping the German back four awake for the first 80 minutes had better be good at his job, because if they are a bit sluggish come the last ten, their defence may well have a problem as the Turkish ‘it’s not over until it’s over’ mentality sees them charging forward in ever-increasing numbers. Turkey have scored only one first half goal in their championship history, and with 8 of their 9 goals coming in the second halves of their matches, odds on this occurring again must be fairly short.

Tom thinks this might go all the way, with Turkey providing a massive end of game push to tie the game at 2-2.

Jack reckons that the Teutonic maestros will triumph 2-0.

Stats powered by Castrolindex.com

But sometimes emotion takes over, and despite being bored in large periods of that match, I’m going to dedicate this post (for what it’s worth) to Slaven Bilic and Croatia – a team who lit up this tournament in patches, and who deserve to be remembered fondly! 

Were the Turks lucky? Did the referee allow extra time to go on too long – I’m not sure, but they should take great credit in that victory, their threadbare side hanging on before snatching that magnificent late equaliser. Rustu, despite his error in conceding that goal, made up for it with a great penalty save, and the whole side working their socks off. 

But come on now – he’s been our favourite manager throughout the tournament, he plays in a top (ish) Croatia rock band – and well… Slaven is glorious! (as is his mother-in-law so we hear) We will miss you sir, and your excellent side who have worked hard – and show how they put England out so easily.

Go and have a look at the full stats over on the CPI - And long live Turkey - who have performed well above themselves.

Those on the beeb have called it “almost watchable”, but quite frankly I disagree. Admittedly it isn’t the free-flowing match that we were treated to last night, but it’s been a tense, exciting encounter - with chances at both ends for the teams taking part. Apparently the atmosphere is electric over in Vienna, and Niko Kranjar has obviously let the noise get to him, and is working his socks off. Inches away from nailing an all-important goal in the first half, just take a look at this heat map below from the CPI - and feel guilty about sitting on the sofa and not having covered even near 5,619 metres (the most industrious player on the pitch) in the last 45 minutes…!

We love football blog love Niko - and it’s easy to see why!